Understand which trade schemes move secondary sales, and at what cost
A RUSA case study for consumer goods and distribution teams, connecting scheme calendars, trade spend, secondary sales, outlet participation, and baseline periods for trade promotion effectiveness.
Trade spend as share of secondary sales (%)
Scheme outlet participation rate (%)
Volume change versus baseline (%)
Cost per incremental case
THE CHALLENGE
Trade spend grows while scheme impact remains unclear
Stock not visible
Closing stock is reported irregularly or not at all.
Static norms
Stock norms do not change with seasonal sales velocity.
Fast-mover gaps
High-velocity SKUs run out while slow SKUs pile up.
Ordering by habit
Primary orders follow last month's quantity rather than need.
THE SOLUTION
Trade Promotion Evaluation Framework
Spend consolidation
Collect daily or weekly closing stock from every distributor.
Velocity-based norms
Set norms from recent secondary sales velocity and lead time.
Gap identification
Compare stock with norm for every SKU and distributor.
Order suggestion
Show suggested primary quantities for sales team review.
THE APPROACH
Trade Spend Consolidation
Standardise closing stock submissions and track missing reports.
Sales Velocity Calculation
Calculate rolling daily secondary sales by SKU and distributor.
Norm Recalculation
Recalculate days-of-cover norms with lead time and seasonality.
Below Norm Alerts
Document how overlapping schemes share volume and cost.
Spend Efficiency Review
Compare cost per incremental case across schemes with stated assumptions.
Controlled Scheme Testing
Recommend test and control regions before claiming incremental lift.
THE IMPACT
Total cost view
Each scheme's full cost could be seen in one place.
Honest comparison
Schemes could be judged against agreed baselines.
Reach insight
Low participation could be identified as a cause of weak results.
Better tests
Future schemes could be planned with control groups.
Controlled review
Authorized teams could review high-spend schemes with low participation or unclear volume response, with source evidence retained beside each review case.
Measurable evaluation
A pilot could establish baseline values for trade spend as share of secondary sales (%) and assess changes after approved actions. Descriptive results alone would not establish causality.
Explore Distributor Inventory And Stock Norms
Work with RUSA Analytics to connect distributor closing stock, stock norms, secondary sales velocity, and pending primary orders and create a governed workflow to review distributors below stock norm on fast movers or holding excess slow stock. Start with a scoped concept or pilot and agreed success measures.
MORE WORK
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